Every trip to the mailbox right now is cause for anxiety for thousands of families, who are waiting to hear if their high school seniors have been admitted to the college of their dreams.
Parents are also doing a little private nail biting, wondering how they're going to pay for their offspring's foray into higher education.
"It's very expensive, but I'm going to make sure she doesn't have as many loans as I do," said single mom Dedra Marshall of Orange, a UCLA alum who's still paying off her own student loans while figuring out how to finance her daughter Brandy Brown's upcoming freshman year at UCLA.
Her concerns come as the college admissions climate is undergoing rapid change. Some factors at play that will affect college admissions in the coming years include:
• Declining enrollments. This year was the top of the demographic "tidal wave" of students coming out of high schools nationwide and seeking entrance into college. That means that, next year, pressure on the systems to provide more enrollment space will begin to ease, and students will find it slightly easier to get in.
• Reduced tuition. More expensive private universities are offering free or reduced college fees to middle- and lower-income families. The trend began after pressure was brought to bear on the nation's wealthiest universities, like Harvard and Yale, to spend some of their multibillion-dollar endowments to help students. Now other schools are joining in, including Soka University in Aliso Viejo.
• Early admissions. The practice of granting some students early admissions in exchange for the guarantee they will attend has raised the rankings of many private schools. But several top schools, including Harvard and Princeton, have scrapped their early admissions programs because they may favor the most advantaged students who understand how they work.
• Smoother transitions between community colleges and universities. Want your kid to get a degree from UCLA or UC Berkeley? You might aim to get him or her into a community college honors program that guarantees transition to a top UC.
"You have a better chance to get into UCLA and Berkeley out of community college than out of high school," said Marta Vargas, transfer center director at Santa Ana College, which has a UC Breakfast Club for students who are on the path to transfer. "If they complete their requirements and have a good GPA, they have a much better chance."
It's considerably cheaper for a student to attend a community college rather than a UC, both for the state and also for parents and the students themselves. For families, it can mean a difference of more than $20,000 a year.
Because the state wants more students to start in community colleges, it's become easier than ever to transfer to the University of California. You can pick the campus before you start, and if your grades stay high, your transfer is assured.
UCLA and Berkeley have special dorms for transfer students, so students get the experience of living in the residence halls when they move away to school.
Don't expect the same level of enthusiasm from private universities, though. Harvard announced March 21 that it won't even accept transfer students for the next two years, due to a shortage of student housing.
INCREASING COSTS
California's budget crisis means public universities are becoming increasingly expensive for students, who are footing more of the bill for their education than in the past.
The price increases have blurred the distinction between the cost of attending public and private universities. Although private schools have higher tuition costs, only the wealthiest families pay the full amount.
Patty Maize of Orange said her family is spending $17,000 a year to send her daughter, Kaylene, to school at Cal Poly San Luis Obispo. With one more teenager at home, Maize said the cost of college has changed their lifestyle.
"My husband, Paul, is eligible to retire, but he can't," Maize said. "I think I will be working until I'm 75 or 80. We're both taking on more work. Honestly, we just figure out month to month how to pay for it."
Murray Haberman, director of the California Postsecondary Education Commission, an agency that tracks trends and reports to the Legislature, said that 30 years ago, 17 percent of the state's budget went to higher education, while 10 percent does today.
Students and parents are expected to pay the difference, with fewer grants to go around.
"Even the most disadvantaged students are facing having to borrow," Haberman said. "From our perspective, college affordability is the most pressing problem facing education today."
Haberman estimated it costs $25,000 a year to send a student to a UC campus like Berkeley, Los Angeles or San Diego. "It's not much less to go to CSU because you still have to pay for room and board and books."
It can be cheaper, of course, to live at home. Textbooks and tuition at Cal State Fullerton this year are about $4,500. The total cost of attending CSUF while living with parents is estimated at $11,470 per year, including fees, books, transportation, food and housing, according to CSU figures.
A family with an income of $20,000 per year is still expected to pay $9,500 toward a UC education, Haberman said.
"Even if a kid works all summer and makes $5,000, well, a kid in a family with an income like that, the money is probably going to go to the family, not to college," Haberman said.
Haberman said he expects more students to be questioning the value of a four-year degree, as universities continue to become more expensive.
Graduates of a certificate program in radiation therapy from a community college can earn $40 an hour, he said.
LOOKING FORWARD
Dedra Marshall, who went back to college after becoming a teenage mother, is still paying off her loans from attending medical school. She's not sure how she'll pay for her 18-year-old daughter, Brandy, to go to UCLA this fall, but she's thrilled nevertheless.
Attending UCLA has been Brandy's dream ever since her mother was an undergraduate there; she tagged along to classes as a child.
"When I went down to the mailbox Saturday and saw that big fat envelope, I got very excited," Marshall said. "We always look for the large envelopes, because those are the better ones. I took it upstairs, and Brandy opened it, and it was the acceptance. We both screamed, and then we went out for ice cream to celebrate and watched the Bruins play basketball."
Even if students don't get into the school of their dreams, life as they know it isn't over, Maize said.
"We know a girl who graduated from Mater Dei and thought she wanted to go back East, but she didn't get accepted to any of her colleges," Maize said. "Now she's at UC Berkeley and she loves it."
